Tag: Covid-19

Covid-19, Public health, Public safety, Toronto

Face masks are reducing Covid-19 transmission in T.O.

highparkengr

In a previous post we looked at Covid infections for people in their 30’s, since this age group has been affected more by community transmission than others. One of the purposes of wearing face masks is to reduce the number of community transmissions e.g. when we go to shopping, take public transit, get some take out etc. So, the question is: has community transmission of Covid gone down since July 7th (the date when faces masks became mandatory inside public spaces in Toronto)? The answer is, yes. Specifically, if we look at people in their 30’s the number of daily reported cases has significantly gone down. In fact, as of July 8th we are looking at the lowest numbers since the start of the pandemic.

covid-daily-30

 

Covid-19, Public health, Public safety, Toronto

Covid sources of infections in T.O.

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Of the approximately 15,000 Covid-19 cases in Toronto, over 70% can be traced to either “close contact” (e.g. residing in the same household with a confirmed or probable case) or an outbreak. “Community” infections (i.e. not due to travel or close contact or a known location) account for almost 15% as per the chart below.

Covid-all

However, sources of infection vary by age group. First, let’s look at the youngest age group, which is 19 and younger. For this group 77% of cases were due to close contact. While outbreaks account for 10% and community transmission for 7%.

Covid-19

Secondly, let’s look at the oldest age group, which is folks 90 and over. For this age group 93% of the cases were due to outbreaks. This information is consistent with the news of several outbreaks in long-term care facilities.

Covid-90

Thirdly, let’s look at a middle-aged group those between 30 and 39 years of age. For this age group 38% of cases were due to close contact, 24% linked to outbreaks, and 17% caused by community transmission. The fact that community transmission is higher for middle-aged groups (compared to the young and the elderly) is consistent with the fact that middle-aged adults are most likely to buy groceries, run errands, go shopping, work in essential services etc. than youths and the elderly.

Covid-30

From the above we can conclude that youths are more likely to get infected due to close contact, while the elderly are more likely to get Covid-19 because of an outbreak. Furthermore, we can also conclude that community transmission is a risk, since people who get Covid-19 due to community transmission are likely to spread it via close contact to their partners, families, friends, roommates and co-workers. Consequently, we all still need to wear face masks outside of our homes, practice physical distancing and wash our hands frequently. Stay safe and listen to the science.

(Credit: this data comes from Open Data TO)

Covid-19, Public health, Toronto

Covid-19 fatalities/ICU by T.O. postal code (under 70 years of age)

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The elderly, especially folks in long-term care have been disproportionately affected by the recent Covid-19 pandemic.

In a recent blog post I pointed out the large discrepancy in the number of fatalities by neighbourhood in Toronto.

Some have singled out the concentration of long-term care facilities in certain neighbourhoods as a possible explanation for these discrepancies. Others have argued that some neighbourhoods in Toronto simply have more people.

Let’s explore these arguments by looking at the Covid-19 data for patients under 70 years of age. Since it is unlikely for someone under 70 to be in a long-term care facility.

A look at Covid fatalities for patients under 70 by postal code reveals that certain neighbourhoods have suffered a disproportionately higher number of fatalities:

  • Two neighbourhoods: Weston and Birch Cliff, Cliffside West account for 14% of Covid fatalities in Toronto for those under 70.
  • Two North York neighbourhoods: Downsview and Northwood Park, York University account for 10% of Covid fatalities in Toronto for those under 70.
  • Some neighbourhoods have had only 1 under 70 Covid-19 fatality. While Weston has had 11 under 70 Covid-19 fatalities.
  • Therefore, there is still a large discrepancy in Covid-19 fatalities by neighbourhood that cannot be explained by the concentration of long-term care facilities.

Noting that fatalities are not the only serious outcome from Covid-19, let’s now look at the number of Covid-19 patients under 70 who were hospitalized in an intensive care unit (ICU):

  • The neighbourhood of Weston has both the highest number of Covid-19 patients under 70 who were in ICU, and the highest number of under 70 Covid fatalities.
  • Two North York neighbourhoods: Downsview and Northwood Park, York University had a high number of patients who were in ICU.
  • Some neighbourhoods have had only 1 patient under 70 in ICU because of Covid-19. While Weston has had 12 under 70 patients in ICU because of Covid-19.
  • Weston does not have 10 times more population than these neighbourhoods. In fact, it has a lower population than some of the neighbourhoods with 1 ICU patient under 70. Therefore, population cannot account for these discrepancies.

Both Public Health Ontario and Public Health Toronto need to investigate what exactly is causing these large discrepancies in terms of Covid fatalities and ICU cases by neighbourhood.

Four postal codes in T.O. with the highest Covid fatalities of people under 70 years of age

Postal Code Neighbourhoods Borough Covid fatalities
M9N Weston York 11
M1N Birch Cliff, Cliffside West Scarborough 9
M3N Downsview North York 8
M3J Northwood Park, York University North York 7

 

Four postal codes in T.O. with the highest Covid ICU patients under 70 years of age

Postal Code Neighbourhoods Borough Covid ICU
M9N Weston York 12
M3N Downsview North York 11
M9V South Steeles, Silverstone, Humbergate, Jamestown, Mount Olive, Beaumond Heights, Thistletown, Albion Gardens Etobicoke 10
M3J Northwood Park, York University North York 8
Covid_fatalities_70
Covid-19 fatalities by postal code (under 70 years of age)
Covid-19, Parkdale - High Park, Public health, Toronto, Ward 4

Covid-19 fatalities by T.O. postal codes

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You may already know that both North Etobicoke and North Scarborough have experienced the highest number of Covid cases in Toronto. Furthermore, last Friday, July 10th Public Health Toronto released additional information via the City’s Open Data portal.

A look at Covid fatalities by postal code reveals that certain Scarborough neighbourhoods have suffered a higher number of fatalities:

  • As of the date of the Open Data information, there are a total of 1106 Covid fatalities in all of Toronto.
  • The postal code M1E, which includes Guildwood, Morningside, and West Hill, has the highest number of fatalities with 86.
  • Furthermore, four Scarborough postal codes are among the ten highest in terms of Covid fatalities.
  • In fact, these four Scarborough postal codes account for approximately 20% of all of the Covid fatalities in Toronto.

A look at two postal codes in Parkdale-High Park reveals that there can be large discrepancies within one district:

  • The postal code M6K, which includes Brockton, Parkdale Village, and Exhibition Place, has 34 Covid fatalities.
  • Yet, nearby postal code M6P, which includes High Park, and The Junction South, has 8 Covid fatalities.
  • So even between nearby postal codes there can be large discrepancies in terms of Covid fatalities.

The City of Toronto needs to find out what exactly is causing these large discrepancies in terms of Covid fatalities by neighbourhood.

Table: Ten postal codes in T.O. with the highest Covid fatalities.

Postal Code Neighbourhoods Borough Covid fatalities
M1E Guildwood, Morningside, West Hill Scarborough 86
M3J Northwood Park, York University North York 61
M9B West Deane Park, Princess Gardens, Martin Grove, Islington, Cloverdale Etobicoke 55
M1C Rouge Hill, Port Union, Highland Creek Scarborough 55
M6M Del Ray, Mount Dennis, Keelsdale and Silverthorn York 50
M9P Westmount Etobicoke 41
M1N Birch Cliff, Cliffside West Scarborough 41
M4S Davisville Central Toronto 40
M1L Golden Mile, Clairlea, Oakridge Scarborough 36
M6K Brockton, Parkdale Village, Exhibition Place West Toronto 34

 

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Covid-19 fatalities by T.O. postal codes