The elderly, especially folks in long-term care have been disproportionately affected by the recent Covid-19 pandemic.
In a recent blog post I pointed out the large discrepancy in the number of fatalities by neighbourhood in Toronto.
Some have singled out the concentration of long-term care facilities in certain neighbourhoods as a possible explanation for these discrepancies. Others have argued that some neighbourhoods in Toronto simply have more people.
Let’s explore these arguments by looking at the Covid-19 data for patients under 70 years of age. Since it is unlikely for someone under 70 to be in a long-term care facility.
A look at Covid fatalities for patients under 70 by postal code reveals that certain neighbourhoods have suffered a disproportionately higher number of fatalities:
- Two neighbourhoods: Weston and Birch Cliff, Cliffside West account for 14% of Covid fatalities in Toronto for those under 70.
- Two North York neighbourhoods: Downsview and Northwood Park, York University account for 10% of Covid fatalities in Toronto for those under 70.
- Some neighbourhoods have had only 1 under 70 Covid-19 fatality. While Weston has had 11 under 70 Covid-19 fatalities.
- Therefore, there is still a large discrepancy in Covid-19 fatalities by neighbourhood that cannot be explained by the concentration of long-term care facilities.
Noting that fatalities are not the only serious outcome from Covid-19, let’s now look at the number of Covid-19 patients under 70 who were hospitalized in an intensive care unit (ICU):
- The neighbourhood of Weston has both the highest number of Covid-19 patients under 70 who were in ICU, and the highest number of under 70 Covid fatalities.
- Two North York neighbourhoods: Downsview and Northwood Park, York University had a high number of patients who were in ICU.
- Some neighbourhoods have had only 1 patient under 70 in ICU because of Covid-19. While Weston has had 12 under 70 patients in ICU because of Covid-19.
- Weston does not have 10 times more population than these neighbourhoods. In fact, it has a lower population than some of the neighbourhoods with 1 ICU patient under 70. Therefore, population cannot account for these discrepancies.
Both Public Health Ontario and Public Health Toronto need to investigate what exactly is causing these large discrepancies in terms of Covid fatalities and ICU cases by neighbourhood.
Four postal codes in T.O. with the highest Covid fatalities of people under 70 years of age
|Postal Code||Neighbourhoods||Borough||Covid fatalities|
|M1N||Birch Cliff, Cliffside West||Scarborough||9|
|M3J||Northwood Park, York University||North York||7|
Four postal codes in T.O. with the highest Covid ICU patients under 70 years of age
|Postal Code||Neighbourhoods||Borough||Covid ICU|
|M9V||South Steeles, Silverstone, Humbergate, Jamestown, Mount Olive, Beaumond Heights, Thistletown, Albion Gardens||Etobicoke||10|
|M3J||Northwood Park, York University||North York||8|