Covid-19, Public health, Public safety, Toronto

Covid sources of infections in T.O.

Of the approximately 15,000 Covid-19 cases in Toronto, over 70% can be traced to either “close contact” (e.g. residing in the same household with a confirmed or probable case) or an outbreak. “Community” infections (i.e. not due to travel or close contact or a known location) account for almost 15% as per the chart below.

Covid-all

However, sources of infection vary by age group. First, let’s look at the youngest age group, which is 19 and younger. For this group 77% of cases were due to close contact. While outbreaks account for 10% and community transmission for 7%.

Covid-19

Secondly, let’s look at the oldest age group, which is folks 90 and over. For this age group 93% of the cases were due to outbreaks. This information is consistent with the news of several outbreaks in long-term care facilities.

Covid-90

Thirdly, let’s look at a middle-aged group those between 30 and 39 years of age. For this age group 38% of cases were due to close contact, 24% linked to outbreaks, and 17% caused by community transmission. The fact that community transmission is higher for middle-aged groups (compared to the young and the elderly) is consistent with the fact that middle-aged adults are most likely to buy groceries, run errands, go shopping, work in essential services etc. than youths and the elderly.

Covid-30

From the above we can conclude that youths are more likely to get infected due to close contact, while the elderly are more likely to get Covid-19 because of an outbreak. Furthermore, we can also conclude that community transmission is a risk, since people who get Covid-19 due to community transmission are likely to spread it via close contact to their partners, families, friends, roommates and co-workers. Consequently, we all still need to wear face masks outside of our homes, practice physical distancing and wash our hands frequently. Stay safe and listen to the science.

(Credit: this data comes from Open Data TO)

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